The best new artist category at the Grammy Awards is a tricky one to try to predict. Cardi B and Post Malone were famously not eligible in the field last year due to previous nominations for Cardi and the voting committee deciding that Posty's breakthrough was with the singles "White Iverson" and "Congratulations," released back in 2015.
The 2020 Grammy nominations won't be announced until Nov. 20, but the eligibility period just wrapped up on Aug. 31, so Billboard's Pop Shop Podcast (listen below) can now comfortably discuss which rookie artists have made the biggest impacts over the past 11 months. (Note: Last year's eligibility period closed a month later, on Sept. 30, 2018, but due to the Oscars moving up their telecast, the Grammys did too, hence the shortened "year.")
So who do we think has a good shot at the eight-position category? The Pop Shop duo Keith & Katie agree with Billboard awards editor Paul Grein, who predicts Billie Eilish will be a lock for a nomination, given the commercial and critical success her blockbuster album When We All Fall Sleep, Where Do We Go? There's another equally strong possibility looming, if the Grammy voting committee decides Lizzo is "new" enough to be considered. While she's undeniably experiencing the biggest success her career this year, her breakthrough song "Truth Hurts" — which is currently spending its second week at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 — was actually released back in September 2017 and then tacked on as a bonus track to her major-label debut album Cuz I Love You in the spring.
Since the Recording Academy tries to make sure a diversity genres are represented in the best new artist field, some other likely candidates could be Latin artist Rosalía, country hitmaker Morgan Wallen and hip-hop tour de force Megan Thee Stallion. Or they could reward the genre-defying Lil Nas X for his unprecedented 19-week run atop the Hot 100 with "Old Town Road."
For all our predictions, listen to the podcast below:
The Billboard Pop Shop Podcast is your one-stop shop for all things pop on Billboard's weekly charts. You can always count on a lively discussion about the latest pop news, fun chart stats and stories, new music, and guest interviews with music stars and folks from the world pop. Casual pop fans and chart junkies can hear Billboard's senior director charts Keith Caulfield and deputy editor, digital Katie Atkinson every week on the podcast, which can be streamed on Billboard.com or downloaded in Apple Podcasts or your favorite podcast provider. (Click here to listen to the previous edition the show on Billboard.com.)